Advertising is a casino business

Fascinating paper, well worth reading in depth. The summary is that it is pretty well impossible for most companies to run an effective experiment to test whether advertising spend works or not. Classical theories of the firm assume access to reliable signals to...
World cup and alternatives

World cup and alternatives

I really like 538’s presentation of the chances of countries going through from the group stages. It clearly depends on the SPI and their model based on it being of any value. I also liked the alternative world cup by various indicators. There’s only...

The Sea Ranch

Like visiting Discovery Bay after a direct hit from a neutron bomb I have wondered a few times what this development was, mostly when passing by on the Macau ferry. Now I know. Well worth 13 minutes of your time. Thanks to Hong Wrong for the post. Sea Ranch: A 1970s...